Spring selling season heats up
Corelogic Market overview
CoreLogic Head of Research Eliza Owen shares her analysis of the market.
Home values: The median dwelling value across the Tweed Valley was $934,988 in September. Home values across the Tweed Valley have been through a slump, but now seem to be in recovery mode. Home values in the region peaked in April 2022, just before the start of rate hikes, and had seen an upswing in value of 62% from the onset of the pandemic in March 2020.
That cumulative growth position has since declined amid recent price falls, but is still a sizable 51.8% growth rate since March 2020. Home values are currently -6.3% below the peak level in April 2022, but have been rising since March this year. In September, the annual change in home values recorded the first positive figure since September 2022, at 0.7%. While this is a modest annual growth rate, it indicates a stronger start to the spring selling season for sellers.
For the suburbs analysed (Kingscliff, Casuarina and Bogangar), value growth had also started to pick up in early 2023. Through the September quarter, growth in values ranged from 1.9% in Casuarina to 3.0% in Kingscliff.
“There have been some positive signs for sellers as price gains are recorded across Kingscliff, Casuarina and Bogangar.”
The recovery trend started a little earlier across Casuarina, which is now 1.6% higher in value year-on-year. For this particular pocket of the greater Richmond Tweed market, the upswing phase of the cycle seems fairly entrenched, despite a high interest rate environment.
Selling conditions: As noted above, the market was looking fairly weak through early 2023, but selling conditions across the Tweed Valley are looking stronger through the start of spring.
Total listings on the market were 616 through September, down from 782 in September last year. This coincides with a moderation of new listings being added to the market since June last year, which has trended down to 143 listings through September. Median time on market for the past three months is also down slightly year-on-year, at 44 days compared to 46 days.
For the suburbs analysed, sellers appear to be more confident in selling, with new and total listings volumes generally higher than this time last year.
For Casuarina and Bogangar however, the market still seems tightly held with only 20 properties added to the market in the past three months across Casuarina, and 14 in Bogangar.
Rental performance: Rents are rising across the region, albeit more slowly than in previous years, and off the back of a mild downturn in rent value in early-to-mid 2023. In the 12 months to September this year, rent growth across the Tweed Valley was 1.4%.
Annual rent growth peaked at 21.6% in the 12 months to June 2021, and cumulative rent growth since the pandemic is 35.4%. This is higher than the 32.9% uplift seen in the broader Richmond-Tweed market. Across the Tweed Valley, there were 252 rental listings on the market, down from 277 in September last year.
Overall, the data points to a tighter rent market than this time last year, and momentum in rent growth picking up following some softness through winter. The median rent across the Tweed Valley remains relatively expensive, at $736 per week.
A very similar trend can be seen in rentals across Kingscliff, Casuarina and Bogangar. Rent values are moving through a decline, with the quarterly change in rents getting close to zero in Bogangar and Kingscliff (ie., rents here are starting to flatten out), but are still in a bit of a downswing in Casuarina, driven by the house market.
